Syria has long been a divisive issue. On one hand, the country languished under a demonstrably corrupt and brutal government. On the other, it served as the central lynchpin for the Axis of Resistance—the only network capable of countering Western imperialist plans in the region. Now, both institutions have collapsed.
In the interest of uniting all those who believe in collective liberation, I’ll say this: I’m relieved to see that the tone and emotion of Syrians over the fall of a violent dictator like Bashar al-Assad has diminished. From the outset, such behavior was divisive and unhelpful.
The true litmus test of Bashar al-Assad’s regime was the Syrian Arab Army’s (SAA) shockingly poor performance on the battlefield. The SAA demonstrated a clear unwillingness to engage adversaries decisively or defend strategic positions. Instead, its focus appeared to be on standing down and retreating safely to Iraq, rather than defending the capital—a stark contrast to its actions during the previous phase of the war.
The political will was simply absent—within the Syrian government, the Russian and Iranian governments, the military, the people, and even in Assad himself.
Mainstream media propagandists failed to predict this lightning-fast collapse, with the Syrian army folding even quicker than the Afghan National Army did to the Taliban. It seems likely that both Russian and IRGC officials anticipated this outcome, much like the U.S. military reportedly knew as early as 2009 that the ANA would rapidly fall to the Taliban. Seeing the inevitability, they appear to have decided to cut their losses.
Iran and Russia’s capacity to prop up a failing regime appears to have reached its limit. Both countries, which have deepened their security relationship, seem to be seeking concessions from the West, such as relief from the war in Ukraine and economic sanctions on Iran. They may also aim to leverage the incoming Trump administration, which markets itself as anti-war and operates with a quid-pro-quo approach to foreign policy, to secure these advantages.
At any rate, those who are saying the Axis of Resistance is dead may be being overly gloomy about regional prospects. In the short term, chaos is most likely, with the potential Balkanization of Syria between competing geopolitical interests and an expanding Israeli occupation.
In the long term, the future remains uncertain, but developments are likely to unfold rapidly. While the Resistance’s strategy of “strategic patience” proved effective up to a point, relying on a fragile regime like Assad’s made collapse seem inevitable in hindsight.
If one laments the triumph of imperialist forces in the region at this juncture, it is equally important to acknowledge that Assad, despite his atrocities, was far too lenient toward the bourgeois and merchant classes within Syria. He could have implemented popular economic and social reforms to give the people a greater stake in the Syrian state.
But he didn’t, remaining a tyrant. It’s worth remembering that Assad was in power for over a decade before the United States imposed its maximum-pressure sanctions on Syria.
A collective liberation movement built on the oppression and displacement of millions was unlikely to succeed—and it certainly didn’t in this case.
The Palestinian cause is indeed facing a bleak period. In Syria, the recent overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad has led to the emergence of Abu Mohammad al-Julani, the former al-Qaeda leader and deputy to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi of the Islamic State, as a significant figure in the nascent Syrian government. As things stand, the dubiously reformed Al-Julani is the new face of the nascent Syrian government.
Greg Stoker is a former US Army Ranger with a background in human intelligence collection and analysis. After serving four combat deployments in Afghanistan, he studied anthropology and International Relations at Columbia University. He is currently a military and geopolitical analyst and a social media “influencer,” though he hates the term.
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