On Oct. 1, Israel announced a limited ground invasion in southern Lebanon. Now, a month and roughly 100 soldier casualties later, Israeli officials appear to be searching for an exit, insisting that their goals have been fulfilled.

At the outset, Israeli officials described the ground invasion as “limited, localized, and targeted,” with the stated aim of neutralizing Hezbollah’s ability to fire on northern Israeli settlements. Yet, within days, Tel Aviv mobilized four additional divisions along the southern Lebanon border, signaling a clear escalation in its military engagement.

By late December, Israel’s assassination operations had reportedly decimated much of Hezbollah’s senior leadership—alongside hundreds of civilians caught in the crossfire. Even so, Reuters and other media outlets reported that the Lebanese resistance group managed to re-establish its command just weeks later.

By mid-October, the Israeli military was still struggling to break through the Lebanese border area, hampered by a series of persistent setbacks. Israeli forces faced relentless shelling along their supply routes, fell into ambushes, and encountered numerous booby traps. Andreas Krieg from the Defence Studies Department at King’s College London noted that Israel “has not made the progress that I expected them to make in 16 days, which suggests that it is far more difficult. There is certainly more fierce resistance than Israelis initially expected.”

On Oct. 28, Hezbollah’s “Operations Room” issued a communiqué claiming its forces had confirmed the deaths of at least 90 Israeli soldiers and officers. The statement also reported that at least 750 had been wounded, and 38 of Israel’s renowned Merkava tanks had been destroyed. These figures, Hezbollah asserted, apply solely to the casualties and losses inflicted on Israeli forces operating within Lebanese territory.

Hezbollah vs IDF at Ramya: Back-to-back Almas top-attack anti-tank guided missile strikes vs IDF troops at a border position opened in the wall west of Ayta ash-Shab in south Lebanon. [Hezbollah 21/10] pic.twitter.com/nYe6P1RDBK

— Jon Elmer (@jonelmer) October 21, 2024

Israel has released footage showing its forces demolishing numerous civilian homes in Lebanese border villages such as Mhaibib. However, Hezbollah contends that Israel has yet to capture and hold a single village. The Israeli military justifies the widespread destruction by claiming it targets tunnel infrastructure, while Hezbollah argues that the demolitions aim to prevent ambushes on Israeli soldiers.

These significant losses, which Israel has not fully acknowledged due to military censorship that obscures battlefield defeats, are beginning to affect its troops psychologically. Recently, the Israeli Hebrew outlet Yediot Aharonot reported growing distrust and tensions within the elite Egoz commando unit, highlighting concerns over poor decision-making in southern Lebanon and raising questions about the effectiveness of Israel’s military strategy.

Earlier this week, former Israeli Brigadier General Yitzhak Brik criticized the Israeli military’s limited progress, revealing that forces have managed to advance only three kilometers into Lebanon, well short of the Litani River, which lies about 27 kilometers from the border. “Why? Because this army is tiny. In ’78 it reached Litani and in ’82 it arrived in Beirut. Now it is only three kilometers,” he stated, highlighting the difficulties faced by the military.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, known for making exaggerated claims about military achievements in Gaza, asserts that Israel has destroyed 80% of Hezbollah’s missile stockpile. However, Hezbollah continues to escalate its strikes on a near-daily basis, insisting that its stockpile remains largely intact, and the ongoing barrage of fire targeting Israeli settlements and troop gatherings suggests that the military has achieved little in the way of degrading Hezbollah’s capabilities.

Despite its assurances that the military campaign would drive Hezbollah back behind the Litani River and facilitate the return of 60,000 to 100,000 settlers to their homes in northern Israel, the number of displaced Israelis has continued to grow. Hezbollah’s new Secretary General, Sheikh Naem Qassem, has firmly vowed to persist in the fight for Gaza and Lebanon, signaling a steadfast refusal to bow to Israeli demands.

Hezbollah’s strategy has involved deploying ground forces to ambush Israeli troops, with anti-tank units effectively targeting enemy vehicles both within Lebanon and across the border. These operations are complemented by artillery units that shell Israeli supply lines and troop gatherings, which not only complicates rescue missions for the Israeli military but also prolongs the extraction of their dead and wounded, raising concerns about the safety of civilians caught in the crossfire.

Additionally, air defense units are actively targeting Israeli aircraft, while missile and rocket units focus on settlements and military bases. Attack drones are being utilized against strategic targets. This well-coordinated effort suggests a deliberate plan that Israel has struggled to counter, potentially leading to reckless decisions that endanger not only soldiers but also civilians in the region.

The US amb in Lebanon, Lisa Johnson, is doing what Robert Ford did in Syria: promoting a bloody civil war to advance US and Israeli objectives in the region

She reportedly told local allies: “Israel cannot accomplish everything through military means alone. The time has come for… https://t.co/TPqy6PCkQJ

— Max Blumenthal (@MaxBlumenthal) October 30, 2024

There are growing discussions about a potential ceasefire agreement, with Israeli officials claiming that the ground invasion has achieved its intended goals, though those objectives remain vague. Meanwhile, Israel appears to be trying to incite civil unrest within Lebanon, seeking to leverage proxy forces to carry out its agenda.

Feature photo | A young girl carries a Hezbollah flag during the funeral procession of a Hezbollah commander killed while fighting ISIS in Syria. Photo | Shutterstock

Robert Inlakesh is a political analyst, journalist and documentary filmmaker currently based in London, UK. He has reported from and lived in the occupied Palestinian territories and hosts the show ‘Palestine Files’. Director of ‘Steal of the Century: Trump’s Palestine-Israel Catastrophe’. Follow him on Twitter @falasteen47

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