Detonating countless pagers, now two-way radios as well, scattered all over a wide-ranging civilian population with no knowledge or accountability of where they would detonate fits any Western definition of terrorism.
On Tuesday, Israeli intelligence services detonated thousands of pager devices used by members of Hezbollah’s military units and institutions.
This Wednesday afternoon, Israeli Intelligence detonated a second wave of explosives during the funerals of those killed in the first attack.
It is clear that Israel’s goal in the following attacks was to increase paranoia and fear in Hezbollah’s ranks in an attempt to pressure the group’s leadership to change its policy regarding the conflict with Israel.
Targeting public areas, either intentionally or through general disregard, like streets, markets, and shopping centers; using violence to instill fear; indiscriminately harming and murdering civilians, all with an ideological aim (often to propagate an entity’s supremacy), are textbook facets of terror attacks. We are seeing the polishing of terror in the media, and we call for an equal application of moral imperatives for all.
These attacks in Lebanon violate the human rights law prohibition of extrajudicial executions and the IHL prohibition of booby traps designed to look like harmless portable objects or like something likely to attract civilians. This targeting methodology, or rather this lack of targeting methodology, violates the IHL requirements of distinction, proportionality, and precaution.
Despite the violent ingenuity of the attack, this operation signals a lack of viable military options for confronting Hezbollah. Netanyahu is trapped between the impossible task of defeating Hezbollah and returning displaced settlers to their homes and his far-right support base demanding open war.
Furthermore, he reportedly intends to replace Defense Minister Yoav Gallant with Gideon Sa’ar, a former Likud minister and war hawk with negligible military experience.
Booting Israel’s defense minister amid the gravest crisis in its history would, as the Times of Israel puts it, “delight Israel’s enemies, deepen divisions at home.”
After the latest round of detonations on Wednesday, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, during a visit to a northern airforce base, said, “The center of gravity is moving from Gaza to the north through the diversion of resources and forces. We are opening a new phase in the war.”
With this James Bond Villan-esque attack on Lebanon, Netanyahu, the political survivalist, has bought himself time and breathing room. The far right is satisfied for the moment, awestruck by Mossad’s ‘cunning.’ Displaced Israelis are hopeful for a significant follow-up operation to restore security in the north. While Hezbollah is expected to recover quickly, the temporary respite gained from the attack is seen as the operation’s main benefit.
For completeness, we must add that another benefit of the attack is terror – to turn the civilian population and various Lebanese armed factions against Hezbollah and force a confrontation of internal strife that would weaken the group prior to an IDF invasion. It is unlikely that this will be successful, but Israel has historically attempted this strategy in Lebanon.
Join us tonight on State of Play with Empire Files’ Mike Prysner to discuss this unprecedented and developing situation.
Greg Stoker is a former US Army Ranger with a background in human intelligence collection and analysis. After serving four combat deployments in Afghanistan, he studied anthropology and International Relations at Columbia University. He is currently a military and geopolitical analyst and a social media “influencer,” though he hates the term.
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