Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has returned to the Middle East, starting in Israel and continuing to Egypt, to garner support for a multilateral ceasefire in Gaza. However, his efforts face severe challenges. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is staunchly opposed to a genuine ceasefire, and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar refuses to compromise on Israel’s shifting demands. The three-phase ceasefire proposal, which has been revived and rejected multiple times, seems unlikely to succeed given the current political climate.
One potential source of hope, however faint, lies in the recent surge of anti-government, pro-ceasefire protests within Israel. Over the weekend, Israeli citizens took to the streets, demanding de-escalation and a hostage exchange. The big question remains: Will these protests have any real impact, or are they merely the latest chapter in a conflict that has dragged on for nearly a year?
Hamas announced on Sunday that it would adhere to the ceasefire terms proposed by President Joe Biden in late May. However, Netanyahu remains vehemently opposed, citing conditions that align with his long-standing rejection of a permanent ceasefire, a full withdrawal from Gaza, and his insistence on maintaining control over strategic areas like the Netzarim Junction, the Rafah Crossing, and the Philadelphi Corridor.
This deadlock was anticipated after the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the more compromise-oriented Hamas political chief, in Tehran in early August. The U.S. now finds itself in an increasingly untenable position. Both the Department of Defense and the State Department are pushing for de-escalation in the Middle East for a variety of reasons, including the unpopularity of the war during an election season, the U.S. military’s lack of preparedness for a contingency operation against Iran, and the continued erosion of American soft power.
Despite these concerns, the Biden administration is unwilling to exert pressure on the Israeli government, leaving little reason for the cautious optimism being promoted by mainstream media outlets. However, the recent protests in Israel could signal a shift. But will they be enough to bring about change, or are they just another symptom of a conflict that shows no signs of resolution?
Join us tonight on State of Play to discuss the internal situation inside Israel with Anthony Loewenstein: an Australian/German independent, freelance, investigative journalist, best-selling author and filmmaker. He’s the co-founder of Declassified Australia. He’s worked in dozens of countries and was based in South Sudan in 2015 and East Jerusalem between 2016 and 2020. In 2024, he’s the co-editor, with Palestinian Ahmed Moor, of After Zionism. A collection of the world’s leading writers and thinkers on the Israel/Palestine conflict, the book outlines how the one-state solution can be achieved in the Middle East. This is a conversation you won’t want to miss.
Greg Stoker is a former US Army Ranger with a background in human intelligence collection and analysis. After serving four combat deployments in Afghanistan, he studied anthropology and International Relations at Columbia University. He is currently a military and geopolitical analyst and a social media “influencer,” though he hates the term.
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