The Trump administration has been actively working to push Hezbollah out of Lebanese politics—a move that, by extension, seeks to marginalize the country’s Shia Muslim population. Such an effort risks not only dismantling what remains of Lebanon’s fragile democracy but also triggering a civil war.

On February 13, Lebanese authorities blocked Iranian civilian airliners carrying returning Lebanese religious tourists from landing at Beirut International Airport. The decision left many Lebanese stranded in Iran, unable to afford alternative flights home. In response, protests erupted across Beirut, with demonstrators blocking major roads and triggering a violent crackdown by the Lebanese military.

This incident did not occur in isolation. The U.S. had previously pressured Lebanon to restrict Iranian air traffic, and the ban came just one day after Israeli military spokesperson Avichay Adraee accused Iran of using civilian flights to transfer cash to Hezbollah. Israel provided no evidence for the claim, yet Beirut appeared to act in accordance with Tel Aviv’s demands—despite the fact that the two countries remain in a formal state of war.

During her first visit to Lebanon as U.S. President Donald Trump’s deputy Middle East envoy, Morgan Ortagus openly praised Israel’s military campaign against the country, showing little regard for the devastating toll it had taken. Between September and November 2024, Israeli airstrikes and ground assaults killed approximately 2,720 people, yet Ortagus made no mention of the civilian casualties. Instead, she appeared at a press conference in Beirut wearing a prominent Star of David ring—an unmistakable sign of her support for Israel’s war, even as she stood on Lebanese soil.

“We are grateful to our ally Israel for defeating Hezbollah,” Ortagus declared. She went on to thank “Lebanese President Aoun, Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam, and everyone in this government who is committed to an end of corruption, who is committed to reforms, and who is committed to making sure that Hezbollah is not a part of the new government in any form.”

Defying the Trump administration’s “red line” on Hezbollah’s inclusion in Lebanon’s new government, the country’s 24-member cabinet was formed with five Hezbollah-aligned ministers. However, the Shia duo—Hezbollah and its ally, the Amal Movement—fell short of securing the one-third share needed to veto key legislation.

Trump’s State Department has made little effort to conceal its interference in Lebanese politics, openly exerting pressure on the new government. While much of the discussion surrounding Ortagus’s visit focused on the ring she wore during her press conference, there is no ambiguity about her Zionist convictions. A longtime vocal supporter of Israel, Ortagus formally converted to Judaism before marrying her husband, businessman Jonathan Weinberger, at Washington’s conservative Adas Israel Congregation.

Although rarely acknowledged in Western media, the Hezbollah-allied bloc, democratically elected in 2022, remains the largest political force in Lebanon. In the most recent parliamentary elections, the bloc secured 58 of the 128 seats, while the U.S.- and Israeli-backed anti-Hezbollah coalition won just 47.

However, the 2022 election was widely seen as a setback for Hezbollah and its allies, as they lost the parliamentary majority they had held since 2018. Their previous coalition, which controlled 71 seats, suffered losses primarily due to a decline in support for the Christian Free Patriotic Movement, one of Hezbollah’s key partners.

Lebanon’s political system is shaped by deep sectarian divisions, a legacy of its colonial past. The country operates under a confessionalist model, first imposed by the French, which allocates political positions along religious lines: the president must be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of parliament a Shia Muslim.

The U.S. currently backs the Lebanese Forces, a party led by Samir Geagea, a convicted murderer and former warlord with ties to fascist militias. Historically, the Lebanese Forces have enjoyed support from Israel and, until recently, Saudi Arabia. Despite its violent past, the party remains Washington’s preferred political vehicle in Lebanon, positioned as a counterweight to Hezbollah and its allies. Meanwhile, the U.S. is constructing what will be its largest embassy in the region, an expansive complex in Beirut that resembles a military and intelligence hub more than a traditional diplomatic mission.

Another firestorm that has been slowly brewing in Lebanon is over the United States’ continued support for Israel’s occupation of the country’s south. Despite the terms of the initial 60-day ceasefire agreement, which took effect on November 27, 2024, Israel has violated it daily and unilaterally pushed back its departure from Lebanese territory to February 18—an extension that Lebanon’s government has begrudgingly accepted.

Throughout the war between Israel and Lebanon, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) remained conspicuously absent from the battlefield, even as Israeli airstrikes repeatedly targeted their positions, killing Lebanese soldiers. Despite these attacks, the military did not retaliate once.

Following the ceasefire agreement, the LAF received $117 million in U.S. State Department funding—aid explicitly conditioned on efforts to remove Hezbollah from southern Lebanon.

Lebanon’s Shia Muslims are an integral part of the country’s social and political fabric, yet U.S. policy appears singularly focused on undermining them. With Israel’s war crimes still fresh in Lebanese memory and the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary General Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah further inflaming tensions, emotions remain high, and the specter of another major war looms large.

Feature photo | Hezbollah supporters block a road to the international airport during a protest in Beirut, Lebanon, Feb. 7, 2025. Bilal Hussein | AP

Robert Inlakesh is a political analyst, journalist and documentary filmmaker currently based in London, UK. He has reported from and lived in the occupied Palestinian territories and hosts the show ‘Palestine Files’. Director of ‘Steal of the Century: Trump’s Palestine-Israel Catastrophe’. Follow him on Twitter @falasteen47

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