Syria’s de facto ruler, Ahmed al-Shara’a, congratulated Donald Trump upon his inauguration yet refrained from commenting on the Gaza ceasefire. Meanwhile, the new government in Damascus has been taking significant steps to prove its willingness to work with the U.S., yet it still hasn’t been granted complete legitimacy.

Donald Trump “is the leader to bring peace to the Middle East and restore stability to the region,” read a statement issued on behalf of Syria’s de-facto leader, Ahmed al-Shara’a, congratulating the American President. In addition, Syria’s foreign minister, Asa’ad Hassan al-Shaibani, attended the World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting in Davos, sitting down with a cordial conversation with former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair.

These steps are intended to send a strong message to the collective West that Syria will work in its favor. Damascus has also set forth a neo-liberal economic model for the country while inviting leaders from the U.S., UK and EU to meet with Syria’s HTS-led government officials.

In a conversation btwn #Syria’s FM Asaad Hassan Al Shibani and Tony Blair in Davos:

“Now Syria is without threats. Syria is not a threat in the region and in the world and Syria opened a new page for the world and we need Syria to be a country of peace.”

Blair: and you believe… pic.twitter.com/rj4WNVNMrC

— Bachar EL-Halabi | بشار الحلبي (@Bacharelhalabi) January 22, 2025

During the conversation between Blair and al-Shaibani, the former British Premier asked a range of questions without offering any pushback to the answers he received. Blair discussed issues involving women in governance and treating minorities inside Syria. However, the West’s decision to back the administration, run by members of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Al-Qaeda in Syria), clearly hasn’t prioritized these issues.

Notably, the new Syrian government has consistently signaled its intent to normalize ties with Israel, in addition to its opposition to Iran and its allies. On January 18, the HTS government authorities proudly announced the thwarting of a weapons transfer from Syrian territory to Lebanese Hezbollah.

Last week, an announcement was made that Syria would prevent the entry of Iranian, Israeli and Russian goods into their country, which the HTS government later denied. While there are voices who are aligned with the new Syrian government who espouse anti-Russian and anti-Israel points of view, it is frequently stated that Iran is the only true enemy of Damascus.

On the question of Israel, Ahmed al-Shara’a has signaled his intent to normalize ties with Israel, but using cautious wording. However, his foreign minister, Al-Sabahani, has openly stated that “Syria will not be a source of threat to any country, including Israel,” again indicating the Syrian Transitional Government (SGT) won’t act against Western interests.

Media outlets aligned with the SGT have framed these statements as condemnations of Israel’s ongoing invasion of Syria. Outlets like Levant 24, which uses a logo that looks like a copy of Israel’s i24 News, framed the Syrian foreign minister’s statement – in which he stressed that Hezbollah and Iran are no longer in the country. Thus, Tel Aviv has no justification for attacking – as an “objection.”

Syria has historically adopted a posture of opposition to Israel, and such statements are unprecedented, especially as Israel continues to bomb the country, eliminating most of its military capabilities and has been expanding its illegal occupation of Syrian land for over a month. Not a single bullet or threat has been issued over the ongoing Israeli invasion, which openly seeks to annex key regions in southern Syria.

Israel builds military base in southern Syria
It did not build any base in Gaza or Lebanon because there is a resistance pic.twitter.com/91LheDQUd7

— Ahmed Hassan أحمد حسن زيد (@Ahmed_hassan_za) January 21, 2025

The new HTS-aligned Mayor of Damascus, Maher Marwan, has even openly called for eventual normalization with Israel. “Our problem is not with Israel,” Marwan stated in an interview with NPR, continuing to say that “we don’t want to meddle in anything that will threaten Israel’s security.” The Syrian leadership has also interestingly invited the return of Freemasonry to the country, which had been absent due to a five-decade ban.

However, despite the pro-Western posturing, the United States has extended its Caesar Act sanctions against Syria until 2029 yet has allowed them to be circumvented for the time being. The EU has been similarly cautious, implementing a “staged approach” to removing sanctions.

The HTS-led government’s ability to gain legitimacy with the West will ultimately depend on the Trump administration, which has yet to take a clear stance. The last time around, Donald Trump adopted an approach of reducing the U.S. role in Syria, even trying to strike a deal with now-deposed President Bashar al-Assad.

Yet, the major hurdle in cementing the SGT’s relationship with Washington will be the role of its NATO ally, Turkiye. Ankara aligns with most U.S. policy positions regionally yet finds itself in opposition to the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) that are backed by the Americans who maintain a de facto occupation of around a third of Syrian territory.

The U.S. government believes that backing an SDF administration that allows its forces to hold onto Syria’s oil fields gives Washington significant leverage over the Syrian government in Damascus. Meanwhile, Turkiye, which backs its own proxy forces known as the Syrian National Army (SNA) and also occupies a portion of northern Syria, seeks to purge the SDF from the region.

Damascus’s HTS-backed government finds itself in a precarious balancing act between two dominant forces: Ankara and Washington. Fearful of losing favor with either, the Syrian General Transitional Government (SGT) lacks a cohesive ideology or clear direction. At times, it appears to appease Syria’s more liberal factions while simultaneously signaling intentions to impose an Islamic style of governance.

As Syria’s economy crumbles and unrest among its citizens intensifies, the government’s reliance on Western support becomes ever more fraught. In this fragile equation, Donald Trump’s decisions could prove pivotal, determining the fate of a regime that has gambled everything on winning favor in the West.

Feature photo | A Western delegation visited Damascus’ new leadership on January 15, 2025. Germany’s Development Minister was in Syria to meet with politicians from the transitional government, NGOs and civil society representatives. Sebastian Gollnow | AP

Robert Inlakesh is a political analyst, journalist and documentary filmmaker based in London, UK. He has reported from and lived in the occupied Palestinian territories and hosts the show Palestine Files. Director of ‘Steal of the Century: Trump’s Palestine-Israel Catastrophe.’ Follow him on Twitter @falasteen47

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