Ukraine has not renewed its gas contract with Russia. It therefore expired on 1 January. Kyiv served as a gateway for Russian gas to Moldova, Romania, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia, then Austria and Italy. However, illegitimate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky did not want to renew the agreement until the conflict with Russia was resolved.

Gazprom, which estimates its unpaid bills at $709 million, had announced that it would cut off gas supplies to Moldova. The latter, which disputes the bill, estimates its debt at only $8.6 million and blames the Transnistrian company Tiraspoltransgaz. On the contrary, Transnistria argues that Tiraspoltransgaz never dealt directly with Gazprom.

In practice, the Ukrainian decision mainly affects two EU states that are allied with Russia: Slovakia and Hungary. Whereas the Moldovan decision hits Moldova hard and especially Transnistria.

☞ Russia also exports gas to Europe by sea, in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG), as well as through the TurkStream pipeline. The route connects Russia to Turkey via the Black Sea and then continues to the border with EU member Greece. It has two lines, one for the Turkish domestic market and the other to supply customers in Central Europe, including Hungary and Serbia.

☞ After the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in February 2022, the EU made reducing its dependence on Russian energy a top priority. It has increased its pipeline imports from Norway and has found alternative sources of LNG from Qatar and the United States. However, LNG imports are much more expensive than the Russian pipeline. In addition, LNG supplies to the EU are currently at risk due to concerns over Donald Trump’s recent threat to impose tariffs on LNG exports and Qatar’s threat to suspend deliveries due to new EU carbon legislation.

☞ Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico warned that even if gas deliveries via Ukraine account for only 3.5% of EU consumption, any shutdown will disrupt the entire market. He noted that this could increase gas prices across the bloc by around 30%, which would translate into an additional annual cost of €40-50 billion. He visited Moscow on 22 December and met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, in violation of the European Union’s position (as Viktor Orbán had also done). Finally, he asked the European Commission in advance for compensation of €500 million for the damage suffered by Slovakia in the event of a Ukrainian cut in Russian gas supplies.

☞ The EU is studying the possibility of entrusting a private operator with the purchase and transfer of Russian gas, in its name, to the EU via Ukraine.

☞ The gas issue of the war in Ukraine explains the involvement of many players alongside the Straussians.

• The Yamal-Europe gas pipeline, which crosses Belarus and Poland, was closed a few months after the start of the special operation. Poland expropriated the 48% of the shares held by Gazprom, which were frozen by sanctions.

• Nord Stream 1 was phased out of operation due to maintenance requirements compounded by Canada’s delay in returning repaired gas turbines to Russia.

• Nord Stream 1 and the still inactive Nord Stream 2 were later blown up in a terrorist attack (September 26, 2022). Only one was severely damaged, but for political reasons neither was reactivated.

This is the editorial from our paywalled “Voltaire, international newsletter”, n°114-115. For more information, do not hesitate to subscribe: 500€ per year.