The incoming former President Donald Trump has styled himself as an anti-war, pro-deal candidate, maintaining that the wars in Ukraine and Palestine would never have happened if he had been president during the past four years. He campaigned on this platform, even though it is demonstrably true that he is no dove.

The unprecedented amount of ordnance dropped in Afghanistan, the provocative assassination of IRGC General Qasem Soleimani in Iraq, the arming of Ukraine with anti-armor Javelin missile systems—something even the hawkish President Barack Obama dismissed—and his general belligerence toward China are all examples of this. The list of anti-war, pro-deal incongruences goes on.

At any rate, President Trump has called for an end to hostilities in Lebanon and Palestine before he assumes office in January, asserting his desire to “get rid of the wars.” While he remains a foreign policy wild card, it seems plausible that a ceasefire deal could be reached before the holidays in late December. Such an outcome would be a public relations coup, positioning him as a peacemaker and dealmaker.

However, his harsh words at a press conference at Mar-a-Lago this past Monday complicate this image. Trump warned that if the Israeli hostages were not released, there would be “ALL HELL TO PAY.”

Asked about the consequences Hamas would face if all the detainees were not freed, Trump responded, “They’re going to have to determine what that means, but it’s not going to be pleasant.”

These statements come as the U.S. State Department and Israeli officials signal progress toward a limited deal involving a hostage exchange and a temporary ceasefire.

Hamas has shown greater willingness to compromise in recent weeks, indicating it would temporarily tolerate the presence of some Israeli forces in the enclave during the ceasefire.

As with every ceasefire prospect during this nearly 14-month-long campaign, the negotiations remain fragile and could collapse at any moment.

However, the timing of the holidays, including Christmas and Hanukkah, combined with the confluence of political events—such as the fall of Assad and the weakening of Iran’s regional position—makes the proposition more viable.

There are also unconfirmed reports suggesting that Netanyahu may be heading to Cairo, an unprecedented symbolic gesture if true. However, this claim remains contested within the rumor mill.

While Netanyahu is in a politically strong position following the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and the collapse of the Assad government, he may look to “gift” President-elect Trump with his demands. In return, Netanyahu could seek political cover to advance his agenda of settling northern Gaza, the West Bank, and Syria while redirecting his focus toward Iran and Yemen.

Netanyahu has long supported a Trump presidency, and Trump has received a staggering $100 million from Miriam Adelson, widow of Zionist business magnate and political donor Sheldon Adelson. Based on his actions during his previous administration and his statements in the present, Trump is expected to support Israel unconditionally while maintaining an adversarial stance toward Iran.

However, Trump favors winners and appreciates quid-pro-quo arrangements. With a ceasefire in Gaza—even one likely to be temporary—Netanyahu likely believes the president-elect can be persuaded to act on his most aggressive instincts toward Iran. This is the outcome Netanyahu desires above all, having been disappointed by President Biden’s de-escalatory approach toward Iran.

Join us on State of Play to examine this incoming power dynamic.

Greg Stoker is a former US Army Ranger with a background in human intelligence collection and analysis. After serving four combat deployments in Afghanistan, he studied anthropology and International Relations at Columbia University. He is currently a military and geopolitical analyst and a social media “influencer,” though he hates the term.

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