A recent report suggests that quiet negotiations are underway between Riyadh and Washington as the two nations work toward securing a U.S.-Saudi security agreement before President Biden’s term concludes. The initiative appears aimed at establishing what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has dubbed “the new Middle East.”

Before the conflict in Gaza erupted on Oct. 7, 2023, U.S. and Saudi officials were deep in discussions over a controversial security pact. The proposed agreement is part of a sweeping initiative designed to pave the way for normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

The initial framework of the U.S.-Saudi deal was anticipated to include a provision akin to NATO’s Article 5, asserting that an attack on one would constitute an attack on all. By September 2023, it became clear that the security pact would hinge on Riyadh’s decision to normalize ties with Israel. Another key demand from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was the development of a nuclear program, a point expected to be a defining feature of the agreement.

The US is offering Saudi Arabia a formal defense treaty in return for normalizing with Israel and vowing to distance itself from China and prohibit Chinese bases.

A few months ago, Saudi Arabia revealed that it did NOT join BRICS, despite being invited and initially confirming. pic.twitter.com/sc90WSswMS

— Ben Norton (@BenjaminNorton) June 10, 2024

The U.S.-Saudi agreement, however, was far more ambitious than simply providing incentives for normalization; it was part of a sweeping strategy encompassing the entire West Asia region.

In June 2022, Jordan’s King Abdullah II publicly voiced his support for a “Middle East-type NATO.” Speculation quickly followed that such an alliance could include Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and other U.S.-aligned Arab nations—all working in tandem with Israel and the United States. The objective would be to establish a regional bloc capable of counterbalancing Iran’s Axis of Resistance and reinforcing U.S. influence across the region.

Such an alliance would align closely with the push to establish the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor—a trade route designed to connect Asia and Europe through a land passage spanning the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel.

On Sept. 9, 2023, the White House issued a memorandum touting the “landmark” trade corridor, with President Biden calling it “a really big deal” during his visit to the G20 summit in New Delhi. Later that month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the United Nations General Assembly, unveiling a map that underscored the emerging Israeli-Arab partnership and featured the trade route, which he hailed as “the new Middle East.”

The only obstacle to the U.S.-backed Arab-Israeli alliance against Iran—and the ambitious trade corridor—was the lack of a formal normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel. By late September, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman publicly suggested that an agreement with Israel was “getting closer,” effectively sidelining the Palestinian cause.

However, the entire project—predicated on the assumption that the Palestinian issue was no longer a significant factor—was upended by the Hamas-led surprise attack on Israel on Oct. 7.

Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud:

‘Normalising relations with Israel is OFF THE TABLE until a Palestinian state is established.’

Butcher Blinken and Genocide Joe must face reality; Saudi Arabia and the rest of the world are disgusted not only by… pic.twitter.com/BIHi1qPX78

— Afshin Rattansi (@afshinrattansi) October 31, 2024

Saudi Arabia has recently emphasized that establishing a Palestinian state is a prerequisite for any normalization agreement with Israel. Throughout 2024, discussions between Riyadh and Washington regarding a controversial security pact have intermittently surfaced in the news. According to a report by Axios, there is a concerted effort to finalize this security agreement before President Joe Biden’s term concludes in January.

While the full details of the agreement remain undisclosed, two primary aspects have raised concerns: the establishment of a Saudi civilian nuclear program and a defense clause that could obligate the U.S. to engage militarily against Riyadh’s adversaries in the event of an attack.

In his 2024 address to the United Nations General Assembly, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu once again turned to props, illustrating a vision of an Arab-Israeli alliance he described as the “dream” set against Iran’s “nightmare.” The presentation made clear that Netanyahu remains hopeful of reviving the region’s pre-Gaza war blueprint.

A U.S.-Saudi defense agreement binding Washington to Saudi Arabia’s defense could have significant implications. Any breakdown in the truce between Riyadh and Sana’a could entangle U.S. forces in Yemen’s conflict. Additionally, the establishment of a Saudi nuclear program risks being perceived by Iran as a security threat, heightening regional tensions and adding a new layer of volatility to the Middle East.

Feature photo | President Joe Biden speaks to reporters as he arrives at the White House in Washington after returning from a trip to Israel and Saudi Arabia. Andrew Harnik | AP

Robert Inlakesh is a political analyst, journalist and documentary filmmaker currently based in London, UK. He has reported from and lived in the occupied Palestinian territories and hosts the show ‘Palestine Files’. Director of ‘Steal of the Century: Trump’s Palestine-Israel Catastrophe’. Follow him on Twitter @falasteen47

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