As Russia supports the establishment of the Zangezur Corridor, a trade route running along the borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan with Iran, tensions are escalating over the potential impact this may have on Tehran and the North-South Corridor. This development comes at a particularly sensitive time for the Iranian government, which is led by the reformist camp and facing increasing pressure from European nations regarding the alleged transfer of ballistic missiles to Russia for use in the Ukraine conflict.

On September 10, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu announced that Moscow and Tehran were on the verge of signing a new bilateral treaty. This development comes as both nations face a fresh wave of sanctions, primarily in response to allegations of Iran’s transfer of ballistic missiles to Russia.

Iran signed a similar comprehensive 20-year agreement with Russia in 2001. Like the current one, most of the details from that agreement remained concealed from the public.

In 2015, the two nations signed a military cooperation deal, further strengthening their ties. This agreement came after a period of tension caused by Moscow’s cancellation of an $800 million S-300 air defense system deal in 2010. Russia cited international sanctions on Iran’s nuclear program as the reason for the cancellation, leading Iran to demand billions in compensation.

The re-emergence of the long-planned Zangezur Corridor dispute is now central to understanding the geopolitical dynamics involving the United States, Turkey, Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. This contentious issue has resurfaced with various powers jockeying for regional influence.

While the reformist government under newly elected Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian may present a more challenging partner for Moscow than that of former President Ibrahim Raisi, the differences between the two administrations don’t seem to be significantly hindering bilateral relations between Iran and Russia.

Both Israeli and Western media have attempted to inflame these issues, frequently suggesting a potential breakdown in relations and offering analyses of parallel conflicts that have not materialized over time. Despite these narratives, Iran recently joined the BRICS economic alliance, faces accusations of supplying Russia with attack drones and ballistic missiles, and is on the verge of signing a new interstate agreement.

The Zangezur Corridor

Attention refocused on the trade corridor, which aims to connect the two separated regions of Azerbaijan through Armenian territory, following a September 5 post on X (formerly Twitter) by Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi, who stated:

Regional peace, security and stability is not merely a preference, but a pillar of our national security. Any threat from North, South, East, or West to territorial integrity of our neighbors or redrawing of boundaries is totally unacceptable and a red line for Iran.”

The controversy surrounding the Zangezur Corridor resurfaced after a trilateral agreement between Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Russia in November 2020, which ended the war over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. Although the corridor was initially put on hold, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev claimed that Armenia had agreed to its construction, citing statements from Yerevan about rebuilding old Soviet-era railroads. However, Armenia views the prospect of a trade route controlled by a foreign power—especially Baku—as a threat to its territorial integrity.

1- Hidden tension is brewing beneath the normal relationship between Russia and Iran: A

Iranian media outlets + X since last week are full of reports, comments and analyses about Iran-Russia’s relations in the wake of Russia’s support for establishing the Zangezur corridor. pic.twitter.com/mEHzi7Twpv

— Fereshteh Sadeghi فرشته صادقی (@fresh_sadegh) September 9, 2024

Last week, Iran summoned Russian Ambassador Alexey Dedov to express dissatisfaction with Moscow’s handling of the Zangezur Corridor issue. This followed remarks by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who accused Armenia of attempting to sabotage the opening of transport routes.

Tehran sees the Zangezur Corridor as a threat to its own North-South Corridor, its connectivity with Eurasia, and a potential security risk to its northern borders. Additionally, Iran fears the corridor could embolden a Pan-Turkic agenda, strengthening Turkey’s influence in the region and, by extension, NATO’s. This also raises concerns for Iran regarding Israel, which maintains close ties with Baku.

Russia, meanwhile, aims to be the dominant player in the opening of the Zangezur Corridor, a role that promises significant economic and geopolitical advantages. However, Moscow faces pressure amid speculation that private U.S. companies are seeking involvement in the project to counter Russia’s influence in Eurasia. At the same time, Azerbaijan has threatened to use force to secure the territory necessary for the corridor’s construction, potentially sparking another conflict in the region—one that Armenia lacks the military capability to defend against.

The Zangezur Corridor issue has garnered bipartisan consensus within Iran, with both sides of the political divide in the Iranian parliament expressing similar concerns. As a result, suggestions that Iran’s recent public statements signal a shift in its stance on Russia are unfounded. This remains true despite the issue posing multiple threats to both Iranian and Russian interests, potentially leading to further escalation.

Similarly, regarding the three islands off the coast of Iran, which the United Arab Emirates (UAE) claims as its own, Tehran has taken a firm stance against Moscow’s support for Abu Dhabi’s territorial claims. Despite these public disputes over territory and security, the issue has, thus far, not led to a rupture in Iran-Russia relations.

Feature photo | Azerbaijani servicemen guard the Lachin checkpoint on the in Azerbaijan, Oct. 1, 2023. Aziz Karimov | AP

Robert Inlakesh is a political analyst, journalist and documentary filmmaker currently based in London, UK. He has reported from and lived in the occupied Palestinian territories and hosts the show ‘Palestine Files’. Director of ‘Steal of the Century: Trump’s Palestine-Israel Catastrophe’. Follow him on Twitter @falasteen47

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