Six days ago, the Ukrainian Army (AFU) initiated a surprise counteroffensive into the Russian region of Kursk along Ukraine’s northern border. In what is the largest regional gain since the Kharkiv offensive nearly two years ago, the AFU initially captured over 350 square kilometers of territory.
This is the Armed Forces of Ukraine’s first offensive on Russian soil and has apparently caught the Russian Military unawares. However, the salient question remains: What are the goals of this brazen offensive?
After six days of observation, it is becoming clear that the Battle for Kursk could either end in a significant strategic victory that improves Kyiv’s negotiating position in the stalled peace talks or a grave blunder that diverts men and material away from the fighting against the steady Russian territorial gains to the south. The Donbas is, after all, more valuable than Kursk.
The likely goals of the incursion are to stall the Russian initiative and territorial gains made since the start of 2024 and to secure a much-needed public relations victory for Ukraine in light of recent Russian successes. This would help shift the narrative to a more positive one for Ukraine, which is crucial for both its demoralized population and Western politicians who are increasingly hesitant to fund a losing proxy war. Additionally, Ukraine aims to capture and hold as much territory as is militarily viable to strengthen its diplomatic leverage in the event of resumed peace talks or a negotiated settlement.
Another strategic objective is to improve Ukraine’s leverage with the European Union by capturing the Sudzha gas metering station, which pumps nearly 50% of all Russian gas exports to the EU following the destruction of the Nord Stream Pipeline. Ukraine may potentially threaten to shut off the gas flow to silence critics of the war, such as Hungary, which has vetoed several aid packages in Brussels intended to provide military support to Ukraine.
It is clear that Ukraine, already experiencing a military-wide manpower shortage, has committed significant resources and assets to the assault, including two of its most well-equipped and fastest fighting brigades – the 22nd Mechanized Brigade and the 80th Air Assault Brigade. What at first looked like a typical lightning raid meant to embarrass Russian military leaders now appears to be a more extensive operation. The AFU will try to hold this ground in order to shift Russian force dispositions away from the Donetsk region and go for a larger, much-needed PR victory.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov have reiterated several times during the failed Swiss peace summit in June that Russia is open to a ceasefire deal, but Kyiv would have to take into account “the realities on the ground,” implying that Ukraine would have to cede territory controlled by the Russian military. By holding territory in Kursk, Kyiv hopes to flip the script, seeing that President Zelensky said last week on X, “Our unwavering goal is to prepare a real foundation for a just end to this war already this year. And it is possible.”
If this is indeed the primary goal of Zelensky’s offensive into Russia, it looks more like a massive long-term blunder since there is little chance the AFU can hold Russian ground into the autumn months with manpower and supply line shortages and a loss of territorial gains will undermine any short-term PR Victories.
Join us tonight on State of Play as we break down this brazen and increasingly risky, perhaps even fool-hardy, operation.
Greg Stoker is a former US Army Ranger with a background in human intelligence collection and analysis. After serving four combat deployments in Afghanistan, he studied anthropology and International Relations at Columbia University. He is currently a military and geopolitical analyst and a social media “influencer,” though he hates the term.
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