Ukraine was at the heart of the discussions at the Munich Security Conference. President Volodymyr Zelensky once again pleaded for his country’s accession to NATO. However, while the 2023 summit was dominated by the idea that it was enough to provide Kyiv with enough weapons to defeat Moscow, this year’s summit was much more pessimistic. Western participants realized that their combined weapons production capabilities did not match Russia’s. For the moment, there has been no question of the quality of the weapons, just their quantity. Russia limits itself to using conventional weapons, comparable to those of the West. It claims to have a new arsenal, but keeps it secret so as not to reveal its capabilities. Westerners know, since the Syrian war, that some of these weapons exist and are functional, but they don’t know if they all exist; if Moscow exaggerates its power or whether some of it is just fake news. In the event that Russia uses the weapons it has already deployed in Syria, Western armies would be defeated in three days at most, barring the use of nuclear weapons. But nuclear weapons don’t give you an advantage on the battlefield, they just allow for mass destruction. And in this very area, Russia claims it can strike much faster than the West.

• German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has said that Russia could attack NATO within 5 to 8 years. Bild had already revealed, on January 16 (Cf. 0121), a plan by his ministry in anticipation of a Russian attack in September 2024.

• US Vice President Kamala Harris said: “America cannot back down [from Russia]. America must stand firm for democracy. We must uphold international rules and norms, and we must stand by our allies.”

• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stressed that ties between China and Russia are constantly growing on the basis of a non-military alliance, rejection of confrontation and the pursuit of global stability. He reiterated China’s approach to conflicts: non-interference in internal affairs; opposition to imposing one’s will on others; defense of impartiality and justice; primacy of collective interests; seeking political settlements and opposing the use of force; finally, take into account both the symptoms and the root causes.

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