We write in anticipation of the release of your Administration’s Nuclear Posture Review (NPR). [1] Through Fiscal Year 2030, the United States is on a path to spend a striking $630 billion on its nuclear weapons complex. While we commend steps you have already taken to address pressing nuclear dangers — from salvaging the last remaining U.S.-Russia strategic nuclear arms reduction treaty to joining the leaders of the five nuclear-weapon states in emphasizing that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought” [2] — the NPR is a defining moment. It is your best chance to take bold steps that reduce our reliance on nuclear weapons, elevate arms control, and retire President Trump’s new, unnecessary warfighting nuclear weapons.
Your decision to extend the New START Treaty with Russia will ensure that verifiable limits on the strategic forces of the two largest nuclear powers remain in place until 2026. The bilateral strategic stability dialogue underway with Russia to determine the strategic and non-strategic capabilities covered by a potential successor treaty or agreement is also an important step that westrongly support. Your NPR should bolster both these efforts by offering the United States’ full support for formal negotiations with Russia, with the express goal of placing mutual limits on the deployment of destabilizing new weapons that only increase the risk of an inadvertent nuclear war.
We also welcome your commitment with Chinese leader, Xi Jinping to “look to begin to carry forward discussion on strategic stability.” [3] We hope that your NPR gives priority to negotiating confidence and transparency building measures with China. There remains a diplomatic window to convince Xi that China would have learned all the wrong lessons of the Cold War if it were to massively expand its strategic forces, a move that ultimately would be self-defeating. Russian and Chinese nuclear modernization efforts, and the increased roles their nuclear forces play in their military and diplomatic strategies, are concerning and underscore the need for sustained high-level diplomacy. However, press reports leave us concerned that your Administration may opt to make few substantive changes to your predecessor’s 2018 NPR. [4] A status quo posture that does not measurably reduce the “role of nuclear weapons in national security strategy” — as your Interim National Defense Strategy calls for [5] – threatens to throw into overdrive the Cold War arms race action-reaction cycle, with Russia and China likely to race to deploy new offensive and defensive capabilities to counter any perceived U.S. nuclear advantage. A clean break with President Trump’s policies can send a strong signal to Russia and
China that the United States believes restraint and nuclear arms reduction are measures of a country’s great power status, not nuclear weapons overkill.
Building off the January 3 statement from the five nuclear-weapon states, we also urge you to
declare that the sole purpose of nuclear weapons is to deter a nuclear attack on the United States and its allies, and that the United States will never use nuclear weapons first. Changes in the international security environment have not altered your 2017 assessment as Vice President that “given our non-nuclear capabilities and the nature of today’s threats — it’s hard to envision a plausible scenario in which the first use of nuclear weapons by the United States would be necessary. Or make sense.” [6] Conventional forces bolster U.S. extended deterrence guarantees toour allies, and those forces can inflict unacceptable costs on our adversaries, making them morecredible tools than the first use of nuclear weapons.
Ceasing both the deployment of President Trump’s low-yield W-76(2) warhead on a submarine launched ballistic missiles and the further development of a nuclear-armed sea launched cruise missile would further signal that the United States believes that deterrence, not warfighting, is the sole purpose of nuclear weapons. We agree with your 2019 statement on President Trump’s development of new nuclear weapon capabilities — that “the United States does not need new nuclear weapons. Our current arsenal of weapons, sustained by the Stockpile Stewardship program, is sufficient to meet our deterrence and alliance requirements.” [7]
Your forthcoming NPR should reflect your Administration’s views, not embrace President Trump’s nuclear weapons programs. The Trump administration never fully justified their mission. And their development will defy the repeated recommendations of the Government Accountability Office (GAO) to consider deferring the start of or cancelling those programs. [8] It is concerning that the Department of Defense continues to resist calls by Members of Congress for a comprehensive, independent study of whether to pursue the new ground-based strategic deterrent, based on an examination of the cost savings and the technical feasibility of extending the Minuteman III ICBM. [9] We urge you to question the necessity of new nuclear weapons systems and the sustainability of the current expansive program of work. Doing so will also create space for your Administration’s bilateral strategic stability dialogue with Russia to progress, and allow time to gauge the willingness of China to engage in nuclear risk reduction negotiations.
Your NPR represents a once-in-a-generation opportunity to ensure that U.S. nuclear doctrine reflects your recognition that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought. As president, you can exercise badly needed leadership in reducing the role, number, and salience of nuclear weapons at home and abroad so that future generations can finally be free from the nuclear sword of Damocles that hangs over all our heads. We urge you to do so.
Sincerely,
EDWARD J. MARKEY
United States Senator
Co-Chair, NWAC Working Group
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JEFFREY A. MERKLEY
United States Senator
Co-Chair, NWAC Working Group
DONALD S. BEYER JR.
Member of Congress
Co-Chair, NWAC Working Group
JOHN GARAMENDI
Member of Congress
Co-Chair, NWAC Working Group
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ELIZABETH WARREN TINA SMITH
United States Senator United States Senator
TAMMY BALDWIN
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TAMMY BALDWIN CHRIS VAN HOLLEN
United States Senator United States Senator
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BERNARD SANDERS PATTY MURRAY
United States Senator United States Senator
/s
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RON WYDEN PATRICK LEAHY
United States Senator United States Senator
SHERROD BROWN
United States Senator
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BARBARA LEE JAMES P. MCGOVERN
Member of Congress Member of Congress
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ILHAN OMAR EARL BLUMENAUER
Member of Congress Member of Congress
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MIKE QUIGLEY PRAMILA JAYAPAL
Member of Congress Member of Congress
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KATIE PORTER BONNIE WATSON COLEMAN
Member of Congress Member of Congress
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ALAN LOWENTHAL PETER WELCH
Member of Congress Member of Congress
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ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ STEVE COHEN
Member of Congress Member of Congress
/s
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MAXINE WATERS RASHIDA TLAIB
Member of Congress Member of Congress
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DINA TITUS ANDY LEVIN
Member of Congress Member of Congress
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GRACE MENG RO KHANNA
Member of Congress Member of Congress
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JERRY MCNERNEY BOBBY L. RUSH
Member of Congress Member of Congress
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BILL FOSTER TED LIEU
Member of Congress Member of Congress